Book Project
Influence Without Arms: Weaponless Nuclear Deterrence and the Prospects for Disarmament
Summary: There are many books about the role of nuclear weapons in world politics. Just about all of them focus on the countries that are armed with nuclear arsenals, like Russia and the United States. This book puts the spotlight on a different group: countries that have the technological capacity to build nuclear bombs but have decided to remain nonnuclear. These so-called latent nuclear powers far outnumber those that possess locked-and-loaded nuclear forces. Just 10 countries have built nuclear arsenals, but more than 30 -- including Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Japan -- possess the most critical technology needed for bomb-making. How do the latent nuclear powers influence international peace and security? A dominant view holds that the spread of technology that gives states bomb-making potential incites international instability. This perspective is partially correct. However, under certain conditions, latent nuclear powers can be a stabilizing force in world politics. By threatening to build (and possibly use) nuclear weapons in the future, latent nuclear powers can sometimes fend off military challenges and dissuade their rivals from obtaining atomic arsenals. Contrary to popular belief, a country does not need assembled warheads in order to engage in nuclear deterrence. The book's conclusions challenge conventional wisdom about deterrence, nuclear proliferation, and the prospects for disarmament.
Summary: There are many books about the role of nuclear weapons in world politics. Just about all of them focus on the countries that are armed with nuclear arsenals, like Russia and the United States. This book puts the spotlight on a different group: countries that have the technological capacity to build nuclear bombs but have decided to remain nonnuclear. These so-called latent nuclear powers far outnumber those that possess locked-and-loaded nuclear forces. Just 10 countries have built nuclear arsenals, but more than 30 -- including Brazil, Germany, Iran, and Japan -- possess the most critical technology needed for bomb-making. How do the latent nuclear powers influence international peace and security? A dominant view holds that the spread of technology that gives states bomb-making potential incites international instability. This perspective is partially correct. However, under certain conditions, latent nuclear powers can be a stabilizing force in world politics. By threatening to build (and possibly use) nuclear weapons in the future, latent nuclear powers can sometimes fend off military challenges and dissuade their rivals from obtaining atomic arsenals. Contrary to popular belief, a country does not need assembled warheads in order to engage in nuclear deterrence. The book's conclusions challenge conventional wisdom about deterrence, nuclear proliferation, and the prospects for disarmament.
Working Papers
- "The Logic of Latent Nuclear Deterrence."
- "Who’s Prone to Drone? A Global Time-Series Analysis of Armed Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Proliferation" (with Michael C. Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz).
- "Nuclear Umbrellas and Reckless Allies" (with Todd S. Sechser).
- "Broken Promises: Multilateralism, Free Riding, and the Sanctioning Problem in Alliance Commitments" (with Molly Berkemeier).